Predictions
Every open call, and every settled one, scored. Nothing gets deleted.
Open
OpenAI ships GPT-6 before March 2027
Settles on official OpenAI release announcement
Nvidia unveils its next GPU architecture before GTC 2027
Settles on official Nvidia keynote or press release
Anthropic's next funding round values it above $350B
Settles on confirmed terms reported by two major outlets
Meta releases a new open-weight flagship model before December
Settles on model weights published to Meta's official channels
Google ships Gemini 3.0 before January 2027
Settles on official Google DeepMind announcement
AMD begins shipping MI400 accelerators before Q4
Settles on AMD investor-relations confirmation of shipments
Apple ships the rebuilt Siri before the next iOS general release
Settles on Apple's official iOS release notes
Palantir signs a new nine-figure government contract before year-end
Settles on a disclosed contract value in an SEC filing or press release
AI & tech Settles Jan 1, 2027 Amazon says Alexa+ passes 50 million active users before 2027
Settles on an official Amazon disclosure of the user count
Oracle announces a new multi-gigawatt cloud region before Q1 2027
Settles on an official Oracle Cloud Infrastructure announcement
Salesforce says Agentforce passes 10,000 paying customers before year-end
Settles on Salesforce's disclosed customer count
IBM claims quantum advantage on a named commercial workload before 2027
Settles on an official IBM Quantum announcement with a named workload
Intel confirms 18A yields above 70% before Q4
Settles on Intel earnings-call or investor-day disclosure
TSMC begins 2nm volume production before Q1 2027
Settles on TSMC's official production announcement
Samsung Foundry wins a named flagship AI chip contract before year-end
Settles on a confirmed customer named in a press release or filing
Sony announces a next-generation PSVR headset before mid-2027
Settles on an official Sony/PlayStation announcement
Nintendo Switch 2 sells above 25 million units before fiscal year-end
Settles on Nintendo's official quarterly sales disclosure
SpaceX completes an orbital propellant transfer demo before year-end
Settles on official SpaceX/NASA confirmation of the demo
Netflix airs a fully AI-generated short before 2027
Settles on a title appearing in the Netflix catalog with disclosed AI production
Microsoft says Copilot passes 100 million paid enterprise seats before fiscal year-end
Settles on Microsoft's official disclosed seat count
Nvidia closes above $200 before October
Settles on NVDA official close, any session before Oct 1
Tesla closes above $300 before Labor Day
Settles on TSLA official close, any session before Sep 7
Apple closes above a $4 trillion market cap before year-end
Settles on market cap computed from AAPL official close and shares outstanding
Markets Settles at Q3 print Amazon beats Q3 revenue consensus
Settles on Amazon's reported Q3 revenue vs. FactSet consensus at print
Meta beats Q3 EPS consensus
Settles on Meta's reported Q3 EPS vs. FactSet consensus at print
Disney's streaming segment posts a fourth straight profitable quarter
Settles on segment operating income in the Disney 10-Q
Boeing delivers more than 400 737 MAX jets this year
Settles on Boeing's official monthly delivery disclosures, summed
Ford's EV unit narrows its quarterly loss below $1 billion
Settles on Ford Model e segment results in the 10-Q
GM announces a new buyback authorization above $5 billion
Settles on an official GM board authorization press release
Rivian posts a positive gross margin quarter before year-end
Settles on gross margin reported in the Rivian 10-Q
JPMorgan beats Q3 EPS consensus
Settles on JPMorgan's reported Q3 EPS vs. FactSet consensus at print
Goldman Sachs trading revenue tops $8 billion in a quarter before year-end
Settles on segment revenue disclosed in the Goldman 10-Q
Visa reports payment volume growth above 10% for the quarter
Settles on Visa's disclosed payment volume growth at print
Walmart's US e-commerce segment turns profitable for a full fiscal year
Settles on segment disclosure in Walmart's 10-K
Costco raises its membership fee again before 2027
Settles on an official Costco press release
McDonald's US same-store sales grow above 3% in Q3
Settles on McDonald's disclosed US comparable sales at print
Nike's China revenue returns to growth before fiscal year-end
Settles on Nike's disclosed Greater China segment revenue
Pfizer gets FDA approval for a new drug before year-end
Settles on an official FDA approval letter or Pfizer press release
ExxonMobil maintains its $17B+ annual buyback pace through year-end
Settles on disclosed repurchases in ExxonMobil's 10-K
Starbucks US comparable sales turn positive before fiscal year-end
Settles on Starbucks' disclosed US comparable sales at print
Fed cuts rates at the September meeting
Settles on the FOMC statement, Sep 17
Fed cuts rates again at the December meeting
Settles on the FOMC statement, Dec 16
August jobs print above 175,000
Settles on the BLS nonfarm payrolls report
August CPI print comes in below 3% year over year
Settles on the BLS Consumer Price Index report
Unemployment rate rises above 4.5% before year-end
Settles on the BLS employment situation report
10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.5% before year-end
Settles on the Treasury daily par yield curve rate
Q3 GDP growth comes in above 2% annualized
Settles on the advance GDP estimate
Fed holds rates steady at the October meeting
Settles on the FOMC statement, Oct 29
VIX closes above 25 on any session before year-end
Settles on CBOE official VIX close
Nasdaq Composite falls into a 10% correction before year-end
Settles on a 10% drawdown from any 2026 closing high
NYSE records more than 200 new listings this year
Settles on NYSE's official annual listings count
Treasury confirms a debt-ceiling resolution before December
Settles on an official Treasury statement or signed legislation
Weekly jobless claims exceed 260,000 before year-end
Settles on the DOL/BLS weekly claims report
Fed ends balance-sheet runoff before year-end
Settles on an official FOMC statement or minutes
2s10s Treasury yield curve stays uninverted through year-end
Settles on Treasury daily par yield curve rates, 2-year vs. 10-year
Bitcoin above $70,000 by Labor Day
Settles on Coinbase BTC-USD spot, Sep 7 4:00 pm ET
Bitcoin closes above $100,000 before year-end
Settles on Coinbase BTC-USD spot close, any session
Ethereum closes above $5,000 before year-end
Settles on Coinbase ETH-USD spot close, any session
Spot BTC ETFs post a record weekly inflow before year-end
Settles on aggregated weekly flow data from issuer disclosures
Spot ETH ETFs post weekly inflows above $500 million
Settles on aggregated weekly flow data from issuer disclosures
Coinbase lists a new top-20-by-market-cap token before year-end
Settles on Coinbase's official listings blog
Robinhood crypto trading volume sets a new quarterly record
Settles on Robinhood's disclosed quarterly crypto notional volume
Bitcoin dominance falls below 50% before year-end
Settles on aggregated market-cap share across major data providers
A top-10 stablecoin depegs by more than 5% before year-end
Settles on any 5%+ deviation from $1 sustained for 1 hour, exchange data
Share of ETH supply staked rises above 30%
Settles on beaconcha.in / official Ethereum Foundation staking data
Bitcoin trades above its prior halving-year high before year-end
Settles on Coinbase BTC-USD spot, intraday high
Coinbase beats Q3 revenue consensus
Settles on Coinbase's reported Q3 revenue vs. FactSet consensus
Robinhood beats Q3 EPS consensus
Settles on Robinhood's reported Q3 EPS vs. FactSet consensus
Bitcoin's 30-day volatility falls below the Nasdaq's before year-end
Settles on trailing 30-day realized volatility, exchange data
Average Ethereum gas fees fall below $1 for a full month
Settles on Etherscan's monthly average gas price data
NYC records a 5-day heat wave above 95°F before Labor Day
Settles on NWS Central Park station data
A hurricane makes landfall within 50 miles of Miami before Nov 30
Settles on NWS/NHC official landfall advisory
Chicago receives measurable snow before Halloween
Settles on NWS O'Hare station data
Phoenix records 10 or more consecutive days above 110°F this summer
Settles on NWS Phoenix Sky Harbor station data
The Atlantic hurricane season names more than 20 storms
Settles on NHC end-of-season storm count
Denver's first measurable snow falls before October 15
Settles on NWS Denver station data
US area in severe drought or worse rises above 25% before year-end
Settles on the US Drought Monitor, NOAA/NWS data
Seattle records one of its five driest summers on record
Settles on NWS Seattle-Tacoma station precipitation totals
A named storm makes US Gulf Coast landfall before October
Settles on NWS/NHC official landfall advisory
NOAA confirms La Niña conditions before winter
Settles on the official NOAA/CPC ENSO advisory
Recently settled
| Date | Contract | JMM | Market | Outcome | Brier edge | $100 staked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1 | Meta beats Q2 revenue consensus | 60% | 68¢ | No | -0.102 | +$213 |
| Aug 1 | Anthropic announces a new enterprise AI partnership in May | 51% | 65¢ | Yes | +0.118 | −$100 |
| Jul 31 | Nvidia announces a buyback above $1B | 36% | 43¢ | No | -0.055 | +$75 |
| Jul 31 | Netflix beats Q2 revenue consensus | 48% | 56¢ | Yes | +0.077 | −$100 |
| Jul 31 | Bitcoin dominance falls below 45% in Jul | 45% | 37¢ | No | +0.066 | −$100 |
| Jul 29 | Jul jobs print above 196k | 71% | 61¢ | Yes | -0.068 | +$64 |
| Jul 29 | Bitcoin dominance falls below 48% in May | 68% | 60¢ | Yes | -0.058 | +$67 |
| Jul 28 | Alphabet announces a new enterprise AI partnership in Jul | 84% | 69¢ | Yes | -0.071 | +$45 |
| These 8 calls, $100 each | +$164 | |||||
Brier edge = our Brier score minus the market's at forecast time; negative means our forecast was closer to what happened. $100 staked = paper P&L of backing our side of each call at the market price, before fees. Paper fills only; no real money is traded.
Download the ledger (CSV)