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JMM JMM RESEARCH FORECASTS, SCORED IN PUBLIC. See the track record

Predictions / Companies / Nvidia

Nvidia closes above $200 before October

Settles on any official NVDA close at or above $200.00 before Oct 1, 2026 · resolution rules

Updated 6:05 am ET
from the overnight run

JMM forecast 58%
Market price 52¢
Edge vs market +6 pts
Paths above $200 29 of 50
NVDA spot $187.40
If we're right about 58% $192 per $100 on Yes EV +$12 at today's 52¢ · paper record only

Forecast vs market, last 72 hours

Prices in cents; our forecast updates on each model run
JMM forecast58%Market price52¢Last 72 hours

Where 50 simulated paths put NVDA on Oct 1

Monte Carlo, calibrated to options-implied volatility

How this number is made

  1. Paths. We simulate 50 price paths to the deadline, calibrated to the options market's implied volatility surface, not to our opinions.
  2. Drift discipline. Paths carry no alpha assumption; the model's only edge is calibration, never a hot take on the stock.
  3. Count. The probability is the path count touching the strike: 29 of 50 → 58%.
  4. Score. After settlement the call is graded against the market price at forecast time and logged, right or wrong.

Inputs: exchange close data and listed options quotes, snapshotted at run time. Forecast frozen at 6:05 am ET; nothing on this page is revised after settlement.

Related contracts

VenueContractPrice24h
Kalshi NVDA above $200 before October 52¢ +3¢
Kalshi NVDA above $220 before October 21¢ +4¢
Polymarket Nvidia beats Q2 earnings consensus 74¢ +2¢
Polymarket Nvidia largest company by market cap Dec 31 66¢ -2¢