Walmart
The bellwether for how the US consumer is actually doing.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 3 of 4 right
2 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Walmart 2 of 4 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.096 mean
8 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 82% Yes
Q1 2026 Walmart closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 68% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 43% No
Jun 2026 Walmart announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 19% No
Open Walmart guidance raise on the next print we said 27% Open
In the record
"Walmart is overvalued at any price above today's" (bear case, forum consensus) Unsupported