OpenAI
The model releases every lab in this list reacts to.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 2 of 5 right
16 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on OpenAI 2 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.043 mean
20 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 55% Yes
Q1 2026 OpenAI closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 29% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 18% Yes
Jun 2026 OpenAI announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 68% No
Jun 2026 OpenAI guidance raise on the next print we said 28% Yes
Open A 10%+ single-day drop in the stock this quarter we said 57% Open
In the record
"OpenAI is the safest name in its sector" (widely repeated) Mostly true
"OpenAI is overvalued at any price above today's" (bear case, forum consensus) Unsupported