Nike
A turnaround story the market keeps re-pricing.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 3 of 5 right
10 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Nike 2 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.064 mean
18 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats China revenue recovery consensus we said 53% Yes
Q1 2026 Nike closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 79% No
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 77% Yes
Jun 2026 Nike announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 42% Yes
Jun 2026 Nike guidance raise on the next print we said 19% No
In the record
"Nike can double China revenue recovery again within two years" (sell-side note) Unsupported
"Nike's next product will be its biggest launch yet" (company press release) Unsupported
"Nike never misses on China revenue recovery" (trader shorthand) False