Amazon
AWS margin is the tell for the whole company.
In coverage since May 2026
Prediction record
Our call accuracy 4 of 5 right
16 of 25 tracked companies Market accuracy on Amazon 3 of 5 right
market baseline, same contracts Brier edge vs market −0.061 mean
21 of 25 in coverage, by edge Scored events
Q1 2026 Beats quarterly consensus we said 72% Yes
Q1 2026 Amazon closes above a key technical level by month-end we said 83% Yes
May 2026 10%+ single-day move in the stock this quarter we said 57% No
Jun 2026 Amazon announces a new buyback or capital-return plan we said 74% Yes
Jun 2026 Amazon guidance raise on the next print we said 16% No
Open A 10%+ single-day drop in the stock this quarter we said 48% Open
In the record
"Amazon never misses on AWS margin" (trader shorthand) False
"Amazon is the safest name in its sector" (widely repeated) Mostly true
"Amazon's next product will be its biggest launch yet" (company press release) Unsupported